91st Academy Awards: Response and Predictions

On January 22nd, 2019, at 5:20 am, the nominees for the 91st Academy Award nominations were announced at the Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills, California. All 24 categories, or at least the ones actually cares about, are filled with a few well deserving films, a smattering of the expected Oscar bait, and some serious upsets. Today we're taking a look at the nominees, breaking down the upsets, expected winners, and this writer's personal picks.

Here is the official response and predictions for the 91st Academy Awards.

Best Visual Effects

The Nominees:

- Avengers: Infinity War – Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl, and Dan Sudick

- Christopher Robin – Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones, and Chris Corbould

- First Man – Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles, and J. D. Schwalm

- Ready Player One – Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler, and David Shirk

- Solo: A Star Wars Story – Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan, and Dominic Tuohy

Who Should Win:

Avengers: Infinity War

Who will (Probably) Win:

Avengers: Infinity War

Infinity War is the ultimate tribute to visual effects. Nearly ever shot has some digital addition to it. The character effects, especially on Josh Brolin's villainous Thanos, look incredible. The biggest surprise in the nomination of Christopher Robin when fellow talking-bear film Paddington 2, a far superior film, was released the same year. Paddington 2 had some of the best integration of live-action and digital effects in 2018 and its sad to no see it get the recognition for it.

Best Film Editing

The Nominees:

- BlacKkKlansman – Barry Alexander Brown

- Bohemian Rhapsody – John Ottman

- The Favourite – Yorgos Mavropsaridis

- Green Book – Patrick J. Don Vito

- Vice – Hank Corwin

Who Should Win:

Vice

Who will (Probably) Win:

Vice

Regardless of your feelings about about the subject matter of Vice, its hard to walk away not liking the editing. It was fast, energetic, and creative. It took the story of some bureaucrats and made it into a highly unique and interesting drama. The big surprise here is Bohemian Rhapsody. I have not the slightest idea how it pulled off a nomination here.

Best Cinematography

The Nominees:

- Cold War – Łukasz Żal

- The Favourite – Robbie Ryan

- Never Look Away – Caleb Deschanel

- Roma – Alfonso Cuarón

- A Star Is Born – Matthew Libatique

Who Should Win:

Roma or Cold War

Who will (Probably) Win:

A Star is Born or Roma

All of these films have excellent cinematography. It was a big year for black in white. Both Cold War and Roma have been praised for their use of the colourless look. Roma carries Cuaron's love for long takes and massive, expertly choreographed wide shots. The Favourite has Yorgos Lanthimos' iconic look all over it. With its unusual angles and colouring, it stands out visually A Star is Born is probably the weakest entry here. The cinematography isn't bad by any stretch, it just doesn't stand out as much as the other entries.

Best Sound Mixing

The Nominees:

- Black Panther – Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin

- Bohemian Rhapsody – Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali

- First Man – Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis

- Roma – Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio García

- A Star Is Born – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow

Who Should Win:

Roma

Who will (Probably) Win:

Roma or A Star is Born

Have you heard Roma? It's one of the best sounding movies I've ever heard. Its sound design is complex and engaging. It's obvious that painstaking work went into it. I'd suggest viewing the film with really good headphones the first time. It will make it standout all the more.

Best Sound Editing

The Nominees:

- Black Panther – Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker

- Bohemian Rhapsody – John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone

- First Man – Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan

- A Quiet Place – Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl

- Roma – Sergio Díaz and Skip Lievsay

Who Should Win:

A Quiet Place

Who will (Probably) Win:

A Quiet Place

Yeah the sound editing here is really good. Like really good. When your movie is based around sound, it better have good sound editing.

Best Original Song

The Nominees:

"All the Stars" from Black Panther – Music by Mark Spears, Kendrick Lamar Duckworth and Anthony Tiffith; Lyrics by Kendrick Lamar Duckworth, Anthony Tiffith and Solána Rowe

"I'll Fight" from RBG – Music and Lyrics by Diane Warren

"The Place Where Lost Things Go" from Mary Poppins Returns – Music and Lyrics by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman

"Shallow" from A Star Is Born – Music and Lyrics by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, and Andrew Wyatt

"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Music and Lyrics by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

Who Should Win:

"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings"

Who will (Probably) Win:

"Shallow"

Let's be honest, "Shallow" is basically guaranteed here. I can't say I blame them for the nomination. It's a great song. Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga work really well together. I have the song on my playlist. It's wonderful. I'm picking the underdog here just because of how much I liked The Ballad of Buster Scruggs. It's never going to win, but I'll be rooting for it never the less.

Best Documentary - Feature

The Nominees:

- Free Solo – Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, Evan Hayes, and Shannon Dill

- Hale County This Morning, This Evening – RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes, and Su Kim

- Minding the Gap – Bing Liu and Diane Quon

- Of Fathers and Sons – Talal Derki, Ansgar Frerich, Eva Kemme, and Tobias N. Siebert

- RBG – Betsy West and Julie Cohen

Who Should Win:

Free Solo or Minding the Gap

Who will (Probably) Win:

Free Solo or Minding the Gap

Two pretty strong contestants here. Both films have been praised near unanimously by critics and audiences and so both have a very good shot at victory. Free Solo is probably a bit more likely to win here, however I wouldn't be surprised if Minding the Gap won either. I'm surprised to not see Three Identical Strangers or Won't You Be My Neighbor? here. Both were very notable documentary films that earned a lot of attention over the past year.

Best Animated Feature Film

The Nominees:

- Incredibles 2 – Brad Bird, John Walker, and Nicole Paradis Grindle

- Isle of Dogs – Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales, and Jeremy Dawson

- Mirai – Mamoru Hosoda and Yūichirō Saitō

- Ralph Breaks the Internet – Rich Moore, Phil Johnston, and Clark Spencer

- Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord, and Christopher Miller

Who Should Win:

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Who will (Probably) Win:

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

It's the best Spider-Man movie. It's one of the best movies of the year. It's one of the best animated movies ever made. The competition here isn't even close to what Spider-Man brings to the game.

Best Foreign Language Film

The Nominees:

- Capernaum (Lebanon) in Arabic – Directed by Nadine Labaki

- Cold War (Poland) in Polish and French – Directed by Paweł Pawlikowski

- Never Look Away (Germany) in German – Directed by Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck

- Roma (Mexico) in Spanish and Mixtec – Directed by Alfonso Cuarón

- Shoplifters (Japan) in Japanese – Directed by Hirokazu Kore-eda

Who Should Win:

Roma

Who will (Probably) Win:

Roma

Roma has this one in the bag. Obviously. I feel bad for Shoplifters. By all accounts, its a really good movie and would win if Roma had not been released.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Nominees:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Screenplay by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, based on their short stories

BlacKkKlansman – Screenplay by Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee, based on the memoir Black Klansman by Ron Stallworth

Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Screenplay by Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, based on the memoir by Lee Israel

If Beale Street Could Talk – Screenplay by Barry Jenkins, based on the novel by James Baldwin

A Star Is Born – Screenplay by Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters, based on the 1954 screenplay by Moss Hart, the 1976 screenplay by Joan Didion, John Gregory Dunne & Frank Pierson, and a story by Robert Carson & William A. Wellman

Who Should Win:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Who will (Probably) Win:

A Star Is Born (maybe?)

Again, Buster Scruggs won't win, but I'll support regardless. It's a great movie. This is the category I've have the hardest time with. All four of these could easily take home the award. I think A Star is Born has the best chance, but even then it's not by much.

Best Original Screenplay

The Nominees:

- The Favourite – Written by Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara

- First Reformed – Written by Paul Schrader

- Green Book – Written by Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly

- Roma – Written by Alfonso Cuarón

- Vice – Written by Adam McKay

Who Should Win:

First Reformed

Who will (Probably) Win:

Green Book

First Reformed was the best original screenplay all year. As much as I love Roma, this is one area where it is obviously beat. Paul Schrader wrote a fantastic movie and it deserves the award for it. I hate to admit that Green Book will most likely win. It's the weakest entry here, but the Academy makes dumb moves. I'm upset by the snub of Eighth Grade - a wonderfully written that is far superior to Green Book. I'd be surprised, but far happier if something else ultimately took home the prize (like First Reformed).

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees:

- Mahershala Ali – Green Book as Don Shirley

- Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman as Philip "Flip" Zimmerman

- Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born as Bobby Maine

- Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? as Jack Hock

- Sam Rockwell – Vice as George W. Bush

Who Should Win:

Sam Elliot

Who will (Probably) Win:

Mahershala Ali

The awards love Mahershala Ali. I can't say I blame them. He's a fantastic performer and is clearly the best part of an otherwise mediocre film. Green Book is the most Oscar bait-y film nominated this year and I simply don't want it to win in order to stamp out Oscar bait once and for all. Honestly, all the men mentioned above are very talented and I respect every single one of them.

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees:

- Amy Adams – Vice as Lynne Cheney

- Marina de Tavira – Roma as Sofía

- Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk as Sharon Rivers

- Emma Stone – The Favourite as Abigail Masham

- Rachel Weisz – The Favourite as Sarah Churchill

Who Should Win:

Marina de Travira

Who will (Probably) Win:

Emma Stone or Rachel Weisz

I'm not sure if I've made it clear or not so I'll say it again: Roma is just the absolute best and it should win everything. Like it could win best visual effects and I wouldn't care. However, I think the actresses of The Favourite have a stronger chance of winning here. The performances have gained a lot of traction and do deserve the victory.

Best Actor

The Nominees:

- Christian Bale – Vice as Dick Cheney

- Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born as Jackson "Jack" Maine

- Willem Dafoe – At Eternity's Gate as Vincent van Gogh

- Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody as Freddie Mercury

- Viggo Mortensen – Green Book as Frank "Tony Lip" Vallelonga

Who Should Win:

Willem Dafoe

Who will (Probably) Win:

Rami Malek or Christian Bale

Willem Dafoe has the best performance all year. At Eternity's Gate deserved more recognition than it got. It is an excellent portrait of Vincent van Gogh. As for most categories, what I want probably won't happen. I feel like the real contest is between Bale and Malek. Malek is one of my favourite actors thanks to his work on Mr. Robot, but this isn't the film to award him for. Bohemian Rhapsody deserves nothing. Disappointed not to see Ethan Hawke here, but not surprised. Not sure why Viggo Mortensen was nominated.

Best Actress

The Nominees:

- Yalitza Aparicio – Roma as Cleodegaria "Cleo" Gutiérrez

- Glenn Close – The Wife as Joan Castleman

- Olivia Colman – The Favourite as Anne, Queen of Great Britain

- Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born as Ally Maine

- Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? as Lee Israel

Who Should Win:

Yalitza Aparicio

Who will (Probably) Win:

Glenn Close or Lady Gaga

A victory for Aparicio would make for the most insane Oscars story ever. In early 2016, she was working as a school teacher in rural Mexico. Her sister hears about an audition for a movie, is unable to attend, and so tells her Aparicio to go instead. She does. The casting directors like her and she goes through some more rounds of auditions, still not sure of what she's auditioning for. Towards the fall of 2016, she's told that it's for Alfonso Cuaron's next movie. She gets the part and filming begins. The film premieres a year later at the Venice International Film Festival where it wins the Golden Lion. It gets picked up by Netflix and released in December to near universal acclaim. A month later, Aparico gets nominated for best actress. In a little over two years, she went from a school teacher in rural Mexico to an Academy nominated actress. Could you imagine if she won?

Best Director

The Nominees:

- Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman

- Paweł Pawlikowski – Cold War

- Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite

- Alfonso Cuarón – Roma

- Adam McKay – Vice

Who Should Win:

Yorgos Lanthimos or Alfonso Cuarón 

Who will (Probably) Win:

Yorgos Lanthimos or Alfonso Cuarón

If I'm being honest, I hope Yorgos Lanthimos wins this award. While I like the work of Alfonso Cuarón more, Lanthimos has flown under a lot a radars until now, despite having some excellent films under his belt. This would be a great way to cement him as a major director and not just some indie star. Alfonso Cuarón has established his place in the industry. If he did win, I certainly will be happy. Roma is great and Cuarón is a fantastic director.

Best Picture

The Nominees:

- Black Panther – Kevin Feige

- BlacKkKlansman – Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele, and Spike Lee

- Bohemian Rhapsody – Graham King

- The Favourite – Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday, and Yorgos Lanthimos

- Green Book – Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, and Nick Vallelonga

- Roma – Gabriela Rodriguez and Alfonso Cuarón- A Star Is Born – Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper, and Lynette Howell Taylor

- Vice – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay, and Kevin J. Messick

Who Should Win:

Roma or The Favourite

Who will (Probably) Win:

Roma, A Star Is Born, or Green Book

I feel gross admitting that both Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book have a shot at this. It's sad to see so many excellent films snubbed in favour of things like these two films. The Academy has a possible ten nominations for this category - use them. The obvious massive snub in this category is If Beale Street Could Talk. Other great films from the past year that should have made the list include First Man, First Reformed, and Eighth Grade. Hell, even Spider-Man should have made this list over some of the more questionable picks.

A Star Is Born has a chance here, which is a good thing. While not as good as some of the other films, it's at least far superior to Bohemian Rhapsody. I wouldn't be surprised if BlacKkKlansman took it either. The more I think about it, the less decisive I feel. The earlier categories have clear winners, but these more prestigious awards are less certain.

The 91st Acedemy Awards looks to be either an exciting one or a thoroughly upsetting one
. A ton of great films received their due recognition with a few upsets stealing the show. Most dread a repeat of the Golden Globes this year, but I am hoping for the best. This could be the first year where I'd agree with the Oscars more than the Gloves. Never thought I'd write that, but it's true.